2012 is shaping up to be a big year for U.S.-Korea relations. The long-stalled free trade agreement between Korea and the United States was finally signed by both governments late last year and should see the beginning stages of implementation during the 1st quarter of 2012. However, the full implementation of the KORUS FTA will hinge upon the results of presidential elections in South Korea and the United States.

In South Korea, newly elected Democratic United Party leader Han Myeong-sook pledged that her party fully supports an abolishment of the KORUS FTA and would like to rework the agreement from square one, according to a January 17 article in the Korea Herald. A key stipulation in the treaty states that “the head of the corresponding state may discontinue the pact at any time by giving written notice to their counterpart six months prior to the desired date of termination.” The election situation in Korea is worrisome because incumbent President Lee Myeong-bak is currently battling changes in voting preferences among the population and his Grand National Party is torn with infighting. The consensus is that if a DUP candidate were to win the presidency, there is a strong possibility of the KORUS FTA being repealed. This makes 2012 a tense period in South Korean affairs, as the ramifications of such an action on U.S.-Korea relations will be great.

At a time when the United States is struggling with high unemployment and flagging economic growth, the benefits that the KORUS FTA would bring to the U.S. are all the more important. A study in 2009 done by the U.S. Chamber of Commerce detailed the potential negative effects of a repeal of the KORUS FTA. It estimated that America would lose in excess of 345,000 jobs and $35 billion in export sales if the KORUS FTA failed to be implemented. Job creation and economic growth have been key topics in the Republican primary and will continue to be important all throughout the presidential election season. As President Obama is a firm supporter of the KORUS FTA and his Republican challenger will be sure to not ignore the benefits the agreement brings to the United States, so it is certain that the presidential hopefuls in America will be watching Korean affairs throughout the year, and vice versa.

For more reading on U.S.-Korea relations and Korean affairs - http://blog.keia.org/2011/11/dispute-over-dispute-settlement-slowing-korus-fta/
U.S.-Korea - http://blog.keia.org/2011/10/a-new-type-of-korean-leadership-in-the-midst-of-continued-u-s-preeminence/
KORUS FTA - http://blog.keia.org/2011/10/congress-approves-the-korus-fta/